Strategic Thinking & Business Judgment

A senior-level diagnostic of strategic thinking and business judgment — the ability to choose where and how to compete, see second-order consequences, reason commercially, and decide well under uncertainty. Items are realistic executive dilemmas where every option is something a smart leader might do — the strongest reflects what the strategy and decision-science evidence actually shows. Scoring is keyed to that literature: strategy versus goals and operational effectiveness (Porter; Rumelt), systems thinking and second-order effects (Forrester; Senge), industry structure and competitive forces (Porter), opportunity cost and resource allocation, exploration versus exploitation and the success trap (March), unit economics and value creation versus capture (Brandenburger & Stuart), escalation of commitment (Staw), reference-class forecasting and behavioural-strategy debiasing (Kahneman; Lovallo). Behavioural-tendency framing and equally-credible, misconception-anchored options make it resistant to guessing and faking. A stretch band raises the difficulty to subtle, high-ambiguity judgment. Administration time: 24-32 minutes.